Well, as I said before (and as others have said in the other thread) the picture on its own, is perhaps somewhat inadequate.
But I do think your assumptions, that they will die if they fall down; and the saws will cut the branches; and there is no lake beneath them; nor an airbag; and that the tree is wood and not hard stone … make the task a little easier to resolve … assuming that the event takes place in the EU (including the UK) and not in some other place where muderers are totured before death …in which case No.3 doesn’t look too clever !
Suppose you were in a TV show, in front of three doors. Behind one door was a shiny new car, and the remaining two doors had a goat hiding behind. So one car, two goats. You choose a door, and immediately the host, who can see behind the doors, opens one of the remaining doors, where you see a goat. The host then asks you whether you’d like to stay with your original choice or switch. What would you do?
Should you switch or stay with your original choice??
I think we’ve had this one on the old forum.
Your original door gives a 1/3 chance for the car, the other two 2/3. These 2/3 are now “transferred” to the remaining other door. Therefore changing doors is the way to go.
Yes, Mulberry, “changing” doors is the way to go. Gives you a 2/3 probability of winning. Not changing simply gives you the original 1/3 probability. I noticed Collywobbles “liked” you response, so i’m guessing he agrees with you ? I certainly do.
When people ask me to clarify this (ie the non-believers, so to speak) I usually can convince them that if they were allowed to select TWO doors at the start, they would have a 2/3 chance to win.
Now all they have to do is “force” the host to open THOSE two doors.
Suppose you chose doors A and B (but don’t tell anybody). Just tell the host you want him to open Door C. He won’t, he will open Door A or B. That’s ONE of your chosen doors already opened. Suppose he opened Door A for you.
Now all you have to do is get him to open Door B. Easy. He actually asks you whether he should open Door B or C. You simply ask him to open Door B. OK, to him and the audience, it seems as if you changed you mind, but you know better, you didn’t. You had already decided to choose Doors A and B and that is what you’ve achieved.
I think the tree and saw challenge points more towards how we each perceive reality and truth. So, there is no correct answer as such, just what we each perceive as being correct in our own context.
Mike , I don’t tell you are wrong. However on another thread I understood that you said you agree with me on the No1. He stays calm, observing, but seems not aware of the danger coming.
No4 is depressed, No2 and No3 are nasty, suicidal or also stupid.
The more clear stupid one is No1.