Brexit or Bust!


#477

If it’s beneficial for you to have a geodie/makem trade agreement with Finland, go for it.

I doubt the geodie/makem federation would object to a benifical agreement, usually people not part of the ageement are the people who object. Unlike the situation in NI.


#478

The only problem being is there is only two options on the table.
If we had a third option of a Peoples Vote we could all choose that and vote to remain in the EU.
That would fix the NI boarder problem, and all the other problems too, stop big companies leaving the UK. It would stop the pound crashing, stop inflation and the rise of cost of living, retain the benefits of employment law, human rights, equality legislation, allow freedom of travel around Europe, would more or less fix everything of concern. Questions should be asked why this obnoxious Tory-Brexit Party government don’t want honest democracy, and why they are so dementedly determined to ram Brexit home at such a terrific loss to so many of us…


#479

And is there a downside to this.:see_no_evil:

This is what the BBC say about the backstop.

I’m quite happy if by some small chance the backstop comes into force.


#480

Yes, you can’t have your own trade deals with the rest of the world, and N. Ireland will be closer aligned to Rep of Ireland and EU than the UK so will more likely than not leave the UK.

So I’d say yes, given it would mean the death of the UK, there is a downside.


#481

That’s only a downside if you believe we can get better trade deals than the EU.

You’ve seen how good the the EU are at negotiating and how poor the UK is.

Death of the UK, that’s a bit over dramatic.:sob:


#482

I don’t think it is over dramatic, that’s what this is all about. This is project fact and reality. DUP see it too, that’s why they are digging their heals in as they can the writing on the wall.

Scotland will want a second referendum on independence due to a material change (we left the EU) and I expect will vote out of the UK next time given they voted to remain in the EU and no one is listening to them.

If N. Ireland unifies with Rep of Ireland and Scotland vote to become independent then UK will cease to exist. It is after all United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. We’ll just be England and Wales.


#483

That would seem a logical and desirable outcome.


#484

Your comment earlier regarding everybody in the UK should have the same rights.

If Scotland has the right to vote on whether to leave the UK, why doesn’t England have the right to leave the UK.


#485

And Britain can control immigration better (if desired) by implementing the controls permitted by the EU but not implemented by UK,

Britain can submit the necessary change demand to EU to allow the cheese Stilton to be made in the village of Stilton (if desired),

So of the ONLY things that have been identified by contributors on this forum as things Britain could change if Brexit were to go through that would not be not putting an exclusion zone around Britain to keep the Spanish fishing fleet out - which if done might have other serious ramifications.

So as there is nothing else positive from leaving the EU, let us indeed have that referendum to find the will of the people in 2019, and, undoubtedly, as a result stay in the EU.

Fingers crossed!


#486

We’re stronger together and stronger in the EU together. No relationship is perfect.


#487

Too many words there sir.

There is nothing positive from leaving the EU.


#488

I seem to remember that sentiment from Cameron, Brown and Clegg a few years ago, when a vote for independence was goodbye to the EU, and we ended up with Brexit.


#489

Fair point


#490

Just been having another quick look at the long running drivel in this thread, so I thought I’d add my bit of drivel. It seems that everyone’s an expert apparently! Put a load of experts together and they can never agree, they call it differing opinions! Now, as to the experts in the Conservative party, there have in the last 10 years or so been a considerable number wanting looser or indeed no connections with the EU and I suppose that was reflected in the referendum. As to someone mentioning that it was the old fudy dudies that voted out, I should point out that I’m one of those. The old fudy dudies were the same people who voted us into the EU all those years ago! However they voted us in under very different rules. Brussels has since changed the rules many times but the public were not consulted. The route of the problem we see today is the lack of consultation with the public, ie a referendum when Brussels wanted to make unilateral changes that would substantially change the original rules and expected us and others to roll over and have our bellies tickled like little dogs. Our governments at the time made very little noise, colluding with Brussels without considering the mood of the people. I’m not going into the rights or wrongs either way. In or out both have pros and cons. What we need is truth from our leaders not the spin and downright lies we had from both sides of the argument before the referendum. Rich


#491

It appears there are quite a few members who believe if they repeat something often enough it becomes the truth or a reality. Having just spent over 30 minutes of my life that I won’t get back reading the last few days’ contributions, I have come across nothing that hasn’t been said at least a dozen times already. Roll on the 29th March, after which hopefully we might see something else to dig intransigent holes about!


#492

Hi Rich,
thanks for adding your drivel. Most appreciated. :sunglasses:
Cheers, Don


#493

I’m pretty sure that kenc’s query about the back stop and the subsequent posts was relatively new and most of us were simply seeking clarification. Perhaps you are in a position to provide the info that ken is seeking ?


#494

Brussels = 78 UK representatives in the EU Parliament, one minister in the Council of Ministers, one British commissioner. Brussels is not some remote foe in a distant land. A case of split personality?
Besides, Rich, old “fuddy duddies” were once young - they (we) don’t improve with age…they (we) do tend to become more and more rigid, less and less adaptable.


#495

kenc asked this yesterday or the day before.

Anybody able to clarify ?


#496

This is on Twitter this morning. I can’t vouch for it’s accuracy or probity of source, but it adds to the debate and emphasises that the argument over a backstop + hard / soft / no border is more than just a technical discussion.

I’m absolutely on the Remain side and am still to see any single benefit arising from this decision to leave, but we’re now past the point where there’s any realistic chance of the decision being overturned so chaos it is, either with the calamity of The Deal or the catastrophe of No Deal. You couldn’t make it up, an advanced democracy blundering on to leaving this trading bloc with all its benefits - cooperation, security, trade, single market, free travel, consistent rules across the bloc. And we’re throwing that overboard in the name of taking back control. Blimey.

By Peter Foster - @pdmfoster

I can scarcely believe this - we are not into a ‘the backstop’ v ‘a backstop’ semantics debate.

Downing St once again dancing on the head of a pin.

So let’s be clear…1

In her speech, May recommits to

a) December Joint Report and NO infrastructure and related checks

b) no customs border in Irish Sea

That effectively rules out technology to create a border, even if May doesn’t rule out some applications of technology to help with de-dramatising downstream consequences of Brexit.

But the ERG/Shanker Singham ideas of tech (and drones) to fix border dies. 've spent day talking to NI businessmen.

So. Imagine. We’ve diverged and done trade deals with US, NZ, AUS etc… and have different tariffs, different standards (hormone-treated beef) leading to meat at different prices in UK. /3
Declan Billington who sits on NI’s Agrifood Strategy Board estimates that a truck load of cheap beef, taken to a smuggers barn on the border, repackaged as EU-compliant beef is instantly worth €50,000 more.

So massive incentive to smuggle. We know this because cigs (one in four cigs in IE is estimated to be bootlegged) and petrol/diesel smuggling costs some €300m in lost revenues.

Add food, agri and industrial products to that in a diverged economy and you’ll have a smugglers boomtime.And to be clear here, it’s ILLEGAL traffic that’s the problem - they won’t be looking to comply with the rules. Recall the 2008 Dioxin scandal where dodgy interests used bootleg oil to heat pig barns, soaking the meet in Dioxin levels 80-100 time EU limits. That led to recalls in 23 countries and cost Irish pork industry a €100m according to Stephen Kelly at @ManufacturingNI

And then guess what? The smuggling is still linked to paramilitary groups. So you still need to police 300 miles of border with 200 crossing.

No good having ‘light touch’ regulation, voluntary registration back from the border. That NOT THE PROBLEM. It’s the crooks.

So then maybe you use @ShankerASingham drones, right? Genius idea that, since helicopter-like machines hovering over the badlands outside Crossmaglen, Derry or Newry surely aren’t going to cause any flashbacks to The Troubles.

Of course not. And if you identify a dodgy lorry, then what? Well, you got to send a man to intercept it. What kind of man? Does he have gun as well as a peaked cap? Does he need a woman in combat fatigues to protect him?

How hard is it to see how quickly the downward spiral begins? Because with that much money at stake, you are surely naive if you don’t think that mafia gangs with para military roots don’t start running the kind of intimidation and suppression operations that will also bring banks brutal memories? How long before things get nasty for anyone found co-operating with the authorities?

Remember the foul and savage practice of kneecapping? In those parts, strange to relate, they do.

All of which is to say…
The backstop needs to actually deliver on those December 2017 promises Mrs May re-iterated today, and it needs to deliver in the real world.

I understand that NI biz leaders offered Mrs May that they would go and talk to Malthouse types - or have them to NI. I hope they take up the offer, and I hope they listen.

Because if you don’t want the checks done between GB and NI, then its pretty much a customs union with sufficient regulatory alignment not to leave NI in special measures.

Same as its always been.

Addendum: been pointed out to me that gang/smuggling issue does not have exclusively Republican paramilitary roots, as the Dublin gang wars testify