Hoping rather than expecting AY to be third.
1 Like
Geraint may have more chance than any of the others, has previous experience, plus has the most powerful team around him which is still complete with 8 men.
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G should also benefit from the 40km time trial although probably not enough to move up a step or two. Unless he has a really bad day or an incident of some kind he should be nailed on.
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Going with Geraint Thomas for third since he has the experience and has put in the work so far and the team still has 8 members which may be of some benefit coming into the last week of racing.
Have enjoyed the racing so far but Sunday’s race was a bit messy and it looked like fatigue had set in mentally and physically with the number of people who came off thier bikes.
(edit) …also the INEOS GRENADIERS are also leading the race in the team time category so certainly some strong riders across the eight members.
I’m hoping for a great final week of racing and everyone stays upright and fast!
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Apparently it was 40ºc out there yesterday which probably contributed to the crashes, and is why Michael Mørkøv 
(Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl Team) finished outside time limit.
Also another Dane: Jakob Fuglsang (Israel - Premier Tech) who finished yesterday’s stage after crashing, is a non-starter for tomorrow’s Stage 16. This will bring the field down to 151 riders to start tomorrow -
…unless someone else packs.
A look ahead to the final week:
Stage 16: Tuedsay / Carcassonne Foix 179km Hilly
Stage 17: Wednesday / Saint-Gaudens Peyragudes 130km Mountain ^
Stage 18: Thursday / Lourdes Hautacam 143km Mountain ^
Stage 19: Friday / Castelnau-Magnoac Cahors 189km Flat
Stage 20: Saturday / Lacapelle-Marival Rocamadour 40km ITT
Stage 21: Sunday / Paris La Défense Arena Paris (Champs-Élysées) 112km Flat
Looks like the back to back mountain stages on Wednesday and Thursday will be the reckoning, and with the time trial on Saturday the decider 
2 Likes
Tuesday 19th July 2022
Stage 16: Carcassonne›Foix (178.5km)
Into the foothills of the Pyrenees with a duo of 1st category climbs on the 2nd half of this very hilly stage.
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The list of non-starters for today’s Stage 16 has grown:
Lennard Kämna 
BORA - hansgrohe (persistent cold symptoms)
Jakob Fuglsang Israel - Premier Tech (broken ribs)
Aurélien Pares-Peintre 
AG2R Citroën Team (tested + Covid-19)
Mikaël Cherel AG2R Citroën Team (tested + Covid-19)
Max Walscheid Cofidis (tested + Covid-19)
147 starters for today’s Stage 16 (out of the original full field of 176)
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If my maths is correct only 3 members remain in AG2R Citroën.
The latest non-starter today is 29 year old Max Walscheid who happens to be the heaviest competitor in this tour, weighing in at 90kg and standing at 1.99 meters tall.
An interview with G Thomas in the Guardian today.
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STAGE 16 RESULTS: CARCASSONNE TO FOIX (178.5KM)
- Hugo Houle (Can) Israel-Premier Tech, in 4-23-47
- Valentin Madouas (Fra) Groupama-FDJ, at 1-10
- Michael Woods (Can) Israel-Premier Tech, at same time
- Matteo Jorgenson (USA) Movistar, at 1-12
- Michael Storer (Aus) Groupama-FDJ), at 1-25
- Aleksandr Vlasov (Rus) Bora-Hansgrohe, at 1-40
- Dylan Teuns (Bel) Bahrain-Victorious, at same time
- Simon Geschke (Ger) Cofidis, at 2-11
- Mathieu Burgaudeau (Fra) TotalEnergies, at 5-04
- Damiano Caruso (Ita) Bahrain-Victorious, at same time
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GENERAL CLASSIFICATION AFTER STAGE 16
- Jonas Vingegaard (Den) Jumbo-Visma, in 64-28-09
- Tadej Pogačar (Slo) UAE Team Emirates, at 2-22
- Geraint Thomas (GBr) Ineos Grenadiers, at 2-43
- Nairo Quintana (Col) Arkea-Samsic, at 4-15
- David Gaudu (Fra) Groupama-FDJ, at 4-24
- Adam Yates (GBr) Ineos Grenadiers, at 5-28
- Louis Meintjes (RSA) Intermarché–Wanty–Gobert Matériaux, at 5-46
- Aleksandr Vlasov (Rus) Bora-Hansgrohe, at 6-18
- Romain Bardet (Fra) Team DSM, at 6-37
- Tom Pidcock (GBr) Ineos Grenadiers, at 10-11
GREEN JERSEY AFTER STAGE 16
- Wout Van Aert (Bel) Jumbo-Visma, 399 pts
- Tadej Pogačar (Slo) UAE Team Emirates, 182 pts
- Jasper Philipsen (Bel) Alpecin-Fenix, 176 pts
- Mads Pedersen (Den) Trek-Segafredo, 158 pts
- Fabio Jakobsen (Ned) Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl, 155 pts
MOUNTAINS JERSEY AFTER STAGE 16
- Simon Geschke (Deu) Cofidis, 58pts
- Louis Mentjes (RSA) Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert Matériaux, 39pts
- Neilson Powless (USA) EF Education-EasyPost, 37pts
- Jonas Vingegaard (Den) Jumbo-Visma, 36pts
- Giulio Ciccone (Ita) Trek-Segafredo, 35pts
YOUNG RIDER JERSEY AFTER STAGE 16
- Tadej Pogačar (Slo) UAE Team Emirates, in 64-30-31
- Tom Pidcock (GBr) Ineos Grenadiers, at 7-49
- Matteo Jorgenson (USA) Movistar, at 54-00
TEAMS CLASSIFICATION AFTER STAGE 16
- Ineos Grenadiers, in 93-17-10
- Groupama-FDJ, at 28-51
- Jumbo-Visma, at 33-54
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The hilly Stage 16 caused some changes in the top ten GC, bad day for Romain Bardet, and a good one for Nairo Quintana who is now poised to threaten the podium positions.
Pogačar loses another man from his team, Marc Soler 
UAE Team Emirates finished OTL (outside time limit)
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Enjoyable race today and good to see the breakaway make it to the finish with a very strong finish from Hugo Houle. Wout Van Aert looks indestructible with getting into the break, getting green jersey points and then waiting for Jonas at the top of the last hill. Incredible bad luck with UAE losing another rider with Marc Soler finishing outside the time limit. He will be missed over the next two days. Also a very tough break when Rafał Majka’s chain snapped on the climb leaving Tadej without support.
Looking forward to the next two days
5 Likes
Wednesday 20th July 2022
Stage 17: Saint-Gaudens - Peyragudes (129.7km)
With the overall race distance less than 130 km this is likely to be a very aggressively fought out stage. Tadej especially will be on the offensive today.
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2 non starters for Stage 17
Rafał Majka 
UAE Team Emirates
Tim Wellens 
Lotto Soudal
Pogačar is now down to just 3 team-mates; McNulty, Bjerg, and Hirschi.
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The chain break on Rafals bike, caused a muscle tear and he has also had to leave the Tour today…Ineos will attack today or never
Col D’Aspin first climb this morning. Just remembered that last time I rode up that one we came across some wild horses at the top whilst regrouping. The horses seemed very friendly & also keen on food we had in our back pockets. We shooed them away, but they then went across to another bike laid down and started licking the salt off his handlebar tape & hoods. He returned bemused to find his bike covered in hoss slobber 
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I wonder which brand of chain it was, and whether the failure will have any repercussion with the manufacturer (?) 
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Debs
At the time and during the US broadcast, Phil Liggett spoke of problems with Campagnolo. I noticed on the later replay it had been edited out. For what that’s worth.
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Pogacar is an absolute mountain of strength. What a ride by the front three.
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That was a fine stage, and the team stood up for Pogacar where JV dropped off. Still cannot see him breaking away from Vingegard tomorrow though.
Good to see Thomas just settling in and grinding it out. Third place overall surely safe, which is no mean feat. The two ahead are a class apart.
Bruce
4 Likes
A fantastic stage! …could not ask for a better finish, loved it.
Brandon McNaulty was an animal leading Pogačar up the last two climbs, quite impressive!
Looking forward to Stage 18 and suspect the time differences will grow even further apart after the top two riders finish.
3 Likes
Brandon McNulty dropping - and putting significant time into - everyone apart from Pog and Vingegaard. Hmmmmm
STAGE 16 RESULTS: CARCASSONNE TO FOIX (178.5KM)
- Tadej Pogačar (Slo) UAE Team Emirates, in 3-25-51
- Jonas Vingegaard (Den) Jumbo-Visma, at same time
- Brandon McNulty (USA) UAE Team Emirates, at 32s
- Geraint Thomas (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers, at 2-07
- Aleksey Lutsenko (Kaz) Astana Qazaqstan, at 2-34
- Romain Bardet (Fra) Team DSM, at 2-38
- David Gaudu (Fra) Groupama-FDJ, at 3-27
- Aleksandr Vlasov, Bora-Hansgrohe, at 3-32
- Louis Meintjes (RZA) Intermarché–Wanty–Gobert,
- Nairo Quintana (Col) Arkea-Samsic, both at same time
GENERAL CLASSIFICATION AFTER STAGE 16
- Jonas Vingegaard (Den) Jumbo-Visma, in 67-53-54
- Tadej Pogačar (Slo) UAE Team Emirates, at 2-18
- Geraint Thomas (GBr) Ineos Grenadiers, at 4-56
- Nairo Quintana (Col) Arkea-Samsic, at 7-53
- David Gaudu (Fra) Groupama-FDJ, at 47-57
- Romain Bardet (Fra) Team DSM, at 9-21
- Louis Meintjes (RSA) Intermarché–Wanty–Gobert Matériaux, at 9-24
- Aleksandr Vlasov Bora-Hansgrohe, at 9-56
- Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers, at 14-33
- Enric Mas (Spa) Movistar, at 16-35
(no changes of jersey wearers)
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Adam Yates’ turn to have a bad day and dropping 3 places down the GC to 9th and out of contention. Thomas Pidcock drops 5 places and out of the top ten GC, although the lad may have been helping Geraint (?) but Geraint fails to take time out or even keep up with Vingegaard & Pogačar, and only the fact everyone else in the GC did even worst helps to secure that 3rd podium place for Geraint.
The Polkadot jersey is still up for grabs, current wearer Simon Geschke is just holding up but there is a threat after tomorrow’s stage 18 the jersey could go to either Vingegaard or Pogačar.
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Fabio Felline 
Astana Qazaqstan Team DNF
143 finished Stage 17
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