There we are “touching bone”; but the shift towards the system that we would need, a stationary system after a wide decline, does not seem at all simple from the current postulates…
Yes, it’s not simple.
But neither is the ‘keep calm and carry on’ alternative.
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Hmm .not so straightforward to my mind - its a very distorted market using LCOE models… where it is hard to map efficiency purely on a cost basis through an artefact like the LCOE.
In short all things being equal - off shore tends to be windier more often - especially in England and Wales - one can use larger more efficient turbines - and the North Sea is relatively shallow - and so I would suggest overall more efficient at electricity generation
https://www.energy-uk.org.uk/publication.html?task=file.download&id=6563
Also we are seeing the strike costs for electricity for nw off shore wind farms plummeting - see above.
Yes, small voluntary acts of conservation, or installing lower energy renewable or sustainable systems are good.
The ‘but’ is because at the moment (and I did this for years myself) lots of well intentioned people green up their own house and transport and consumption habits, and then think they’ve done their bit - but they carry on voting for policymakers who are not enacting or even talking about sustainable policies (while often overall actively undermining decarbonisation).
And unfortuntely those small voluntary acts will not work - so if those small acts are blocking people from demanding system change, then the small acts become counterproductive in the fight for system transition.
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I take for granted that in these efficiency maths they will have conveniently included maintenance and replenishment costs accelerated by the tremendous salt degradation of the already themselves expensive materials…
I agree its not so straightforward, thats not my point, all I’m saying is on-shore will become more attractive over time. The latest turbines get to maximum output with lower wind speeds & that tends to close the production cost gap between off & on-shore (but yes undoubtedly best is off-shore)
I’ve been going to Pamploma every year since 1990’s & the first thing that strikes you is the city is surrounded by a ring (ridge) of hills & each & every ridge has arrays of wind turbines, all very visible from the city - see photo.
Spain’s total wind generation exceeds that of UK despite that UK is the worlds largest off-shore generator. Its mostly all on-shore & the public love them, very proud what Spain has done in fact.
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In addition, we cannot overlook the well-known “bounce effect”, or “Jevons Paradox”, as some examples ilustrate:
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Efficiency increases energy demand by making products & services cheaper: since 1990, global energy efficiency improved 33 percent, the economy grew 80 percent and global energy use is up 40 percent.
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Efficiency increases energy demand: Since 1995, aviation fuel use/passenger-mile is down 70 percent, air traffic rose more than 10-fold, and global aviation fuel use rose over 50 percent.
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Efficiency increases energy demand: since 1995, energy used per byte is down about 10,000-fold, but global data traffic rose about a million-fold; global electricity used for computing soared.
Ah, I see now. You thought that I was referring to small acts by individuals.
I was actually referring to the general principle of using less. To make a real difference, it needs to be on a large (>>10GW in the UK alone) scale.
While there is an understandable focus on transport and on electric cars, this really misses the point.
I once worked at an LNG import terminal. To provide an objective, quantified level of scale, the UK typical energy consumption from electricity is ONLY 30-40GW when averaged through the day.
That one LNG import terminal had a minimum, low idle gas flow equivalent to circa 35GW. So on tickover, that one terminal matched the energy flow of the whole of the UK’s electrical national grid.
Full load was over 600GW, which dwarfs anything that the UK’s electricity grid handles.
We really should be focusing on heating & building insulation in the UK, far more than transport, not to belittle the improvement that cleaner transport can bring. It is just that we are focused on the small bit while missing the major contributors.
Best regards, BF
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yes - efficency only helps under a suitable GHG emmissions cap.
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Yes, also land use and diet.
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As far as I understand it, some of these lifecycle costs, but necessarily consequential impact costs are reflected in the LCOE models… these being the agreed electricity wholesale price for a particular form of generated electricity. Various analysis paper one can read suggest identifying true costs is difficult through these various levelling models… and possibly can be favoured to encourage one source over another…
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