Actually, if the figures presently published on the BBC website are correct, there so far have been 5.8M votes for Brexit Party and UKIP combined, out of 16.6M votes counted. So, those Brexiteers who (wrongly) suggested or implied that the EU election would effectively be a proxy confirmatory referendum on Brexit itself will see that only just over a third of voters clearly want Brexit, which actually suggests quite the opposite to the confirmation of the overwhelming majority of people wanting Brexit as some people predicted.
Meanwhile @TiberioMagadino I am unclear as to what exactly is the basis of the colours in your map, which seems rather misleading: My understanding is that England is divided into 9 regions for MEPs, and of those 9 only 2 have a majority of Brexit Party MEPs, 2 have equal number of Brexit Party and other parties, and the remaining 5 have a minority of Brexit Party MEPs. Wales is a single region, with equal number of Brexit Party and other parties.
re: Farage for PM, of course it’s a joke. He has stood for election to the House of Commons seven times, in five general elections and two by-elections, but has not won any of those elections.
It’s all bluster this morning from Farage and ill informed analysis of the results in some quarters.
UKIP had 24 seats in the 2014 EU election, basically due to a name change to the Brexit Party they’re held those seats and only gained a further 4 to total 28.
Just a four seat gain for Brexit, admittedly not good for democracy but not the big win their propaganda is suggesting.
I’m very pleased to see in Wales the voter numbers for Remainer parties have outnumbered the Brexit votes. Wales is now clearly a Pro EU country
Thanks. Looking at it in the Beeb site doesn’t clarify either - it still seems at odds with the data, misleadingly suggesting that the Brexit Party hold the majority of either seats or votes in England, neither of which is true. I must be missing something. But I don’t know what!
Its just which party polled the most votes in each local authority. It doesnt say anything about the number or persuasion of the individual MEPs who won seats.
It’s hard to be accurate as it is possible for a voter to vote for Liberal, Green or a Nationalist Party and still want to leave the EU as these are multi-issue parties. It is unlikely anybody voting for us would want to stay in the EU (I think they put their X in the wrong box if they did). Conservative and Labour both say they will implement Brexit albeit with a “deal” so I counted their voters as not supporting EU membership, you could argue that some who voted for these parties may want to remain.
Those who didn’t vote at all cannot be counted although I know of several people who strongly support Leaving who didn’t vote because they thought the EU Elections should never have taken place.
Your interpretation of results is equally valid. I know a statistician who did an analysis of the results and other factors and claim up with 52% vs 48% if favour of Leaving.
Time will tell. I see no appetite for staying in EU, but time for a break from politics now with the World Cup about to start.
That’s right and if that were the pattern for a general election then England & Wales would have landslide victories for the Brexit Party. England and Wales seem undisputedly for leaving the EU, whereas Scotland seems to want to remain.
Hence, it would make sense to gold a second referendum on Scottish Independence. I’m all for countries like Scotland or Catalonia being independent if that is what they want.
It doesn’t mean anything, but it’s a bit of fun (except if you’re a Tory of course, in which case it’s a complete and utter catastrophe), but if you put last night’s results into Electoral Calculus, the result of a General Election would be:
It is a shame the name calling has entered this thread now. I know lots of Brexit members and voters and none support any form of fasicm. However, there are parties voted for in other countries that do and they have MEPs.
So England and Wales voted democratically to leave and I hope we’ll now see this happen. That’s called democracy. The Brexit Part is far more popular than UKIP ever was.
Still my main purpose of posting was to thank those who voted for us and supported democracy. I have respect for those on both sides who are democrats. Sorry I find it hard to respect those who simply call others that do not share their views names or post childish cartoons. I’d have hoped those privileged enough to own Naim equipment would not call each other Names.
I was not joking about Nigel becoming PM - I have just had £10 on it. If we stay in the EU by hook or by crook then my bet that the Government will defy the will of the people will also win me quite a lot, I hope I never collect this one.
Well to be honest I have no axe to grind. On the whole I tend towards remain. But had there been a clear majority for either remain or leave last night (or in the referendum) I’d have been overjoyed. It’s the polarized division in in the country as a whole that I find most troubling.
Seems to be a bit of having your cake and eating it going on here if you don’t mind me saying. On the one hand you dismiss LD Green and other nationalist parties as multi issue so potentially still leave votes, and then help yourself to Lab & Con votes as they may implement leaving, even though Cons have manifestly failed to do so so far, and Lab seem to favour whoever last asked them the question. Reality is that Lab & Con votes aren’t indicative of anything solid wrt to leave or stay.
Ah, that may well explain the colouring on the BBC map @TiberioMagadino posted.
But as an indication of what people actually want regarding Brexit or not, insofar as it is possible to infer from an election designed for a different purpose, only the numbers of votes are relevant - and from that a strong majority for Brexit as some people predupicted, and indeed some seem to infer from the results, is not indicated even in England.
The most worrying thing given an issue dividing the UK so unpleasantly, is why on earth did only around a 1/3 of the electorate bother to take part at all?
Perhaps those who never got off their backsides originally for the 2016 referendum just didn’t bother/never will unless they got a free Big Mac or something, but a significant number who did vote in the referendum did not vote in these elections - admittedly they have historically poor turnout, but if you were bothered to vote in a referendum in 2016, why not in these or is it simply that 2/3 of the electorate really do not give a rat’s arse about Brexit one way or another?
While these results are clearly a barometer of public feeling towards the last few years of shambolic timewasting, I find it hard to believe that they would be reproducible in a General Election.
I don’t think the public trust the LibDems after the coalition with the Conservatives enough to vote for them in a General Election, though the faux-opposition of Mr Corbyn’s party might be enough to swing the vote for many.
Thats a good question. Fewer than half of those who voted in the referendum. Perhaps they feel none of the parties really speaks for them. Perhaps it was a protest at Brexit having not been delivered as promised. Perhaps people feel so disaffected with the whole process they just didnt bother and democracy really is broken. Probably the reasons are many and varied.
As I said, it’s just a bit of meaningless fun, and a chance to chortle at the Tories, UKIP and the CUKs. I think that in a GE, issues such as crime, NHS, transport, pensions, taxes, etc would take precedent over a binary Brexit, and I would suspect that the Brexit Party (which has yet to reveal what its policies are on anything other than leaving the EU) would fade, especially in a FPTP system such as ours.
I sort of agree with you, but the problem with the back of a fag packet “calculations” posted on this thread is that they don’t take into account nuance. How many of the Tory/Lab voters were Remainers? Or Brexiters? We simply don’t know, but on the whole I’m with the esteemed Sir John Curtice, who says that the result is a draw in a very polarised country. He’s penned this analysis for the BBC:
What this election does tell you, is that parties with a clear, unambiguous message (either way) on Brexit, did well: TBP, FibNonDems, Green, SNP, Plaid surged [I don’t count CUK or UKIP as they got wiped out]; while Labour and Conservatives were punished. The latter for not delivering Brexit (or frightening off the Remain-supporting business community), the former for having an ambiguous stance - so in the South they lost votes to the Greens and Cable’s rabble, in the North and Wales to TBP and in Scotland to the SNP.
Both the parties find themselves in a very difficult position and it’s hard to see how they can get out of it. If Lab comes out in favour of a second ref or Remain, they risk alienating voters in their Northern heartlands; if the Cons become too Brexity (or not Brexity enough), they risk losing their more moderate supporters, and the Brexit Ultras too.
It’s interesting that if one looks across the EU as a whole, voters seem to have rejected the status quo (established and centrist parties) and are hungry for change.
This could involve a move to the Right (Italy, Hungary, France to a degree), the Left (Spain) or the Greens (Germany). Although elsewhere in Europe there appears to be little appetite for leaving the EU, I can see very rough times ahead for the EU bureacracy and establishment, with an influx of troublemakers into the Parliament and elsewhere. If the EU establishment fails to listen to the voters and carries on blithely as it always has done, then things could get very, er, interesting…
It is possible for a voter to vote Con or Lab and still want to stay the EU as they are multi-issue parties. Though their manifestos are to honour Brexit (the concept not our party).
When somebody asks what speakers should I buy to go with my “insert Naim or other kit here” the replies are mainly you should audition, you should try them out and see if you like them. Perhaps if remainers did this and gave Brexit a chance they’d see all the benefits. We’ve given the EU 40 years and we have a lot of unhappy people worried about crime, NHS, transport, pensions, taxes, etc., so what we should do is to try something new. Of course, politicians, business executives and overpaid TV presenters largely favour the status quo, but that seems to me a bit of an “I’m all right, Jack” attitude. I am hoping our legacy will be a better world for everyone, not more of the same.
